October 20: In a recent update, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reported the formation of a cyclonic storm over the southeast and southwest Arabian Sea, which is expected to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm. Termed ‘Tej’ in accordance with the naming convention for cyclones in the Indian Ocean Region, the storm poses a potential threat to the coastal regions of Oman and neighboring Yemen. This marks the second cyclonic storm of the year in the Arabian Sea, highlighting the region’s vulnerability to such weather events.
As per the IMD’s predictions, the cyclonic storm ‘Tej’ is anticipated to further intensify, potentially reaching severe cyclonic storm status by Sunday. While meteorologists emphasize the significance of potential deviations from the forecasted track, the general trajectory points toward the south coasts of Oman and Yemen.
It’s worth noting that cyclones in the Arabian Sea can often exhibit unpredictable behavior, as seen earlier this year with cyclone Biparjoy, which initially veered in a north-northwest direction but ultimately changed course to make landfall between Gujarat’s Madvi and Pakistan’s Karachi. Private forecasting agency Skymet Weather suggests that most models indicate the cyclonic storm is headed for the Yemen-Oman coast.
However, the Global Forecast System models introduce a degree of uncertainty, suggesting a possibility of re-curvature while the storm is positioned over the deep central parts of the Arabian Sea, potentially leading it to turn towards Pakistan and Gujarat coasts.
To understand the severity of the cyclonic system, the IMD classifies it based on sustained wind speeds. A system is categorized as a “Cyclonic Storm” when its 3-minute average maximum sustained wind speeds fall between 63-88 kmph. The classification scales up to “Supercyclone” for wind speeds exceeding 221 kmph, with several intermediate categories, such as “Severe Cyclonic Storm” and “Very Severe Cyclonic Storm.”
In addition to the cyclone development, the IMD recently reported the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from India, occurring four days later than the normal date of October 15. With the onset of north easterlies over southern peninsular India, the northeast monsoon is anticipated to commence in the southern peninsular region within the next three days.
As ‘Tej’ continues to evolve, authorities in Oman and Yemen are closely monitoring the situation, preparing for potential impacts and ensuring the safety of their populations in the face of this impending severe cyclonic storm.
Be the first to comment