Myanmar in Crisis: Anti-Military Insurgents Gain Ground as Government Struggles

Myanmar in Crisis: Anti-Military Insurgents Gain Ground as Government Struggles

Naypyidaw, Nov 9: Myanmar’s military-installed president, Myint Swe, has issued a dire warning that the country is on the brink of breaking apart if the government cannot regain control over ongoing conflict in Shan State. Myint Swe, a former general appointed after a 2021 coup, delivered this warning during an emergency meeting called by the ruling military council in response to a series of coordinated attacks by anti-military insurgents that have inflicted significant losses on government forces.

The insurgents, consisting of three ethnic armies in Shan State, have garnered support from other armed groups opposing the government. They have successfully overrun numerous military posts, captured border crossings, and disrupted the key trade routes connecting the region to China. This marks the most significant setback faced by the junta since seizing power in 2021, leaving the military vulnerable.

To counter these insurgent advances, the government has resorted to airstrikes and artillery bombardments, leading to the displacement of thousands of civilians. Despite these efforts, the government has been unable to retake the lost territory, and among the hundreds of soldiers killed, one of the highest-ranking officers since the coup, Brigadier General Aung Kyaw Lwin, is believed to have died in combat.

What sets this recent attack apart is that it signifies the first time well-armed insurgents in Shan State have explicitly aligned themselves with the broader campaign to oust the junta and reinstate democratic rule.

However, there are more complex motivations at play. These insurgent groups have had longstanding aspirations to expand the territories they control. Notably, China, which often plays a restraining role along its border with Myanmar, did not intervene in this operation, likely due to its frustration with the military government’s inaction over illicit activities in Shan State. These activities, including scam centers, have exploited thousands of Chinese citizens and other foreigners.

This operation unfolds within the context of the armed uprising that emerged following the 2021 coup when the military violently suppressed peaceful protests. Many activists fled to regions controlled by ethnic insurgents along Myanmar’s borders, hoping to access training and weapons. Several ethnic armies have aligned themselves with the National Unity Government (NUG), formed by the ousted elected administration, to oppose the junta.

Shan State has long been plagued by conflict and poverty, marked by the rule of different warlords, drug lords, and ethnic rebels, often fighting against each other and the central government. Some of the prominent ethnic groups in the state include the Wa, Kokang, Palaung (Ta’ang), and Rakhine, who have their own militias.

The Wa, in particular, have a ceasefire agreement with the Myanmar military, despite being suspected of supporting anti-military resistance groups in other parts of the country. These ethnic armies, along with the Brothers Alliance—consisting of the Kokang, Ta’ang, and Arakan Armies— have played significant roles in providing shelter, military training, and some weaponry to dissidents from other regions.

Their recent offensive reflects a significant change in approach, as these groups have traditionally focused on defending their territories rather than waging a broader armed campaign to overthrow the junta. The timing of their attack was significant, coming after an incident in Laukkaing, which tested China’s patience with the military government. China has been pressuring the junta to crack down on scam centers, as they have been a source of embarrassment due to reports of brutal treatment of human trafficking victims.

As these insurgent groups gain ground, they not only pose a formidable challenge to the junta but also potentially alter the dynamics of Myanmar’s ongoing struggle for democracy. The NUG, composed of volunteers engaged in armed conflict with the military, has welcomed the alliance’s successes, claiming a new momentum in their fight against the junta.

In response to the junta’s perceived weakness, pro-NUG People’s Defense Forces have initiated their own attacks in areas near Shan State, capturing a district capital from government forces, marking a significant development.

The anti-military groups’ ultimate goal is the overthrow of the military government, aligning with the NUG’s objectives. However, they also aim to seize territory and strengthen their positions in anticipation of a potential collapse of the junta, positioning themselves favorably for post-coup negotiations, especially concerning a new federal structure for Myanmar.

The outcome of this offensive is crucial, as it may either hasten the downfall of military rule or exacerbate challenges in charting a democratic future for Myanmar. The situation remains fluid, with diplomatic efforts and security dynamics playing pivotal roles in the days and weeks to come.