Title: Hezbollah Leader’s Upcoming Speech Raises Concerns Amid Lebanon-Israel Tensions
Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese Shia Islamist group Hezbollah, is set to address his followers on Friday, marking his first public comments since the Israel-Hamas conflict began. This speech is expected to shed light on Hezbollah’s next steps as their fighters clash with the Israeli army along the Lebanon-Israel border, sparking fears that this area could become another front in the ongoing conflict.
While violence has largely been contained so far, tensions have been on the rise in Lebanon since Hamas launched attacks on Israel on October 7, resulting in the deaths of more than 1,400 people. Lebanon has been closely monitoring Hezbollah’s actions, especially as the group has intensified its attacks on Israel, which has retaliated.
Both sides have taken measures to prevent a dangerous escalation, with most of the strikes being limited to the border area. However, the situation could change, as Israel continues its ground invasion of Gaza with the aim of eliminating Hamas, and the Palestinian death toll in Gaza surpasses 9,000, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.
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On Thursday, cross-border attacks intensified, with Israel responding to a simultaneous attack on 19 Israeli positions by Hezbollah. Rockets also struck the Israeli town of Kiryat Shmona near the border, claimed by the Lebanese section of Hamas’s armed wing.
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, warned that the region is on the brink of a crisis and that anything is possible if Israel doesn’t cease its attacks on Gaza.
In response to the escalating situation, US President Joe Biden dispatched two aircraft carrier groups to the eastern Mediterranean and cautioned Hezbollah and others against involvement in the conflict, emphasizing the importance of national security interests.
Nasrallah’s speech is eagerly awaited and will be broadcast as part of an event in Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, in memory of fighters killed in Israeli airstrikes. The conflict has resulted in over 70 deaths on the Lebanese side, including Hezbollah fighters and civilians. On the Israeli side, nine people have died, according to the army.
Hezbollah’s role in the conflict remains uncertain, with some analysts believing that the group may seek to avoid full involvement, given the potential devastation for Lebanon. However, others argue that Iran, which leads the “axis of resistance” against Israel and includes Hezbollah, could play a decisive role in any escalation.
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Amal Saad, a Hezbollah expert at Cardiff University, pointed out that Hezbollah is not a proxy of Iran but rather an ally, asserting its independence to intervene as it deems necessary.
Hezbollah has primarily focused on targeting Israeli observation posts, military positions, vehicles near the border, and drones, using various weaponry. Israel, in turn, has responded with border bombings, and drones have targeted fighters in the vicinity.
The border tensions have revived memories of the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, which led to significant casualties on both sides. Hezbollah receives financial support, weapons, and equipment from Iran, which has enabled it to build a powerful arsenal since 2006.
Observers suggest that both sides are carefully measuring their actions to avoid a situation spiraling out of control, considering the potential for regional consequences. However, if Hezbollah were to fully engage in the conflict, it could result in significant division within Lebanon.
While some in Lebanon anxiously await Nasrallah’s speech, there are differing views on the potential for war. Some hope for a confrontation against Israel, while others emphasize that the decision to go to war should be made by the Lebanese state, not a party or militia.
Hamas has repeatedly called on its allies to join the fight, leading to speculation about whether Hezbollah will heed this call. Hezbollah, like Hamas, is labeled a terrorist organization by the UK, the US, and others, and it holds significant political and military influence in Lebanon. This means that decisions made by Hezbollah have far-reaching consequences, and many both inside and outside of Lebanon are anxiously awaiting Nasrallah’s speech, including supporters and adversaries.
Nasrallah’s whereabouts remain a closely guarded secret. The speech will be broadcast through public screenings organized by Hezbollah across the country, and it is being portrayed as a significant moment. The group announced it five days in advance and released dramatic short videos featuring Nasrallah earlier this week, fueling expectations of a major announcement.
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Many in Lebanon still recall the devastating month-long war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006, raising concerns that the group might draw the country into another conflict. Hezbollah possesses a significant arsenal of weapons, including precision-guided missiles that can reach deep into Israeli territory, and it has tens of thousands of well-trained fighters with combat experience.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed an “unimaginable” response if Hezbollah opens a second front in the conflict. The US, which reportedly advised Israel against launching a large-scale attack on the group, has deployed two aircraft carriers to the eastern Mediterranean to prevent the conflict from spreading.
A full-scale war would be catastrophic for Lebanon, and there is limited public support for it outside of Hezbollah’s followers. Lebanon is grappling with a prolonged economic crisis, and political gridlock has left the country without a functioning government.
An alternative scenario could involve an escalation of Hezbollah’s attacks, responding to Hamas’s calls while keeping the fighting localized to northern Israel. The Biden administration is warning Iran against further escalation, both publicly and through diplomatic channels. Iran supports the “Axis of Resistance,” an alliance that includes Hezbollah as its key component.
While the extent of Iran’s influence over these groups remains uncertain, major decisions are unlikely to be made without Iran’s approval. On Sunday, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stated that Israel’s actions had crossed red lines, potentially prompting action from various parties.
The United States is urging restraint from Iran, despite its continued support for Israel. A source close to Hezbollah revealed that Nasrallah closely monitors the situation and maintains constant contact with the group’s military leadership, despite his public silence.
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