Global Climate Goals at Risk as Major Fossil Fuel Producers Plan Massive Expansion
In the lead-up to the COP28 climate conference, the latest United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Production Gap report has sounded an alarm about the troubling discrepancy between the global community’s climate goals and the plans of the world’s largest fossil fuel producers.
A total of 20 major producing countries, including the United States, China, Russia, Australia, and the United Arab Emirates, have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century, in line with the Paris Agreement’s aims to limit global warming to well below two degrees Celsius.
However, the UNEP report reveals that these governments’ production intentions are moving in precisely the opposite direction.
Their proposed expansions would result in an alarming 110% increase in fossil fuel production by 2030, overshooting the target consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and a 69% surplus compared to the 2-degree Celsius threshold. This troubling trend endangers humanity’s ability to achieve net-zero emissions.
Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP, expressed her concerns by stating, “Governments’ plans to expand fossil fuel production are undermining the energy transition needed to achieve net-zero emissions, throwing humanity’s future into question.
Starting at COP28, nations must unite behind a managed and equitable phase-out of coal, oil, and gas to ease the turbulence ahead and benefit every person on this planet.”
The climate challenge is heightened as fossil fuels remain the leading cause of climate change, responsible for the majority of carbon emissions driving global warming, extreme weather events, and sea-level rise.
Unfortunately, international climate negotiations have been reluctant to explicitly address this issue, and the Paris Agreement does not provide a clear roadmap for achieving its ambitious targets.
The UNEP report examines 20 countries responsible for 82% of global fossil fuel production and 73% of consumption. These countries’ growth projections are alarming: they plan to increase coal production by a staggering 460%, gas production by 82%, and oil production by 29% more than what is compatible with the 1.5-degree Celsius target.
The United States, the world’s largest oil and gas producer, has aggressively expanded domestic oil and gas production even as it has implemented climate policies. It forecasts record-high oil production levels from 2024 to 2050, alongside continuous growth in gas production.
China, the world’s leading carbon emitter, accounts for over 50% of global coal production. While China has made impressive strides in renewable energy, it is crucial to note that it set a domestic coal production record in 2022, with approximately 4.5 billion tonnes, with expectations for production to peak in this decade.
China has committed to peak emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
While some progress was made at COP26, with countries agreeing to “phase down unabated coal power,” these efforts have been overshadowed by record-high fossil fuel production and consumption.
In light of this situation, the 28th Conference of the Parties will face the challenge of addressing fossil fuels, with host United Arab Emirates showing support for phasing down these energy sources.
However, UNEP’s report highlights the lack of concrete policies in the UAE to support a “managed wind-down” of fossil fuels, while the state-owned oil company ADNOC intends to increase oil production capacity by 2027 through a $150 billion investment plan.
Harjeet Singh, Head of Global Political Strategy at Climate Action Network International, has criticized the “glaring hypocrisy at the heart of global climate action,” calling on wealthy polluters to lead by example.
Ploy Achakulwisut, a lead author of the UNEP report and scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute, emphasizes that while some countries have used global conflicts to intensify their fossil fuel efforts, a sustainable solution for the climate and economy lies in transitioning to clean energy.
She asserts that society’s need is energy, not fossil fuels.
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